Why Doxa

Prediction markets serve as a public tool to gauge the probability of future events, especially when direct financial indicators such as token prices are not applicable. Crowdsourcing intelligence presents the unique ability to attribute value to real-world events and efficiently weigh outcomes against an array of speculation. The results of a political election, the war in Ukraine, or whether OpenAI creates AGI before year's end are examples of valuable data points that are difficult to extract from traditional sources. Similarly, accurate predictions about the next US president are highly sought after by citizens and political parties alike, as they make strategic, game-theoretical decisions. Extending beyond real-world events, Doxa believes prediction markets have an incentivization role to play in non-financial onchain activities, such as decentralized governance and coin voting. The outcome of a proposal brought before the Optimism Agora is valuable to ecosystem stakeholders, delegates, and competing protocols, yet no platform exists to financially value the combined effects of all sub-outcomes.

Voter Game Theory

Many active delegates and researchers would agree that the current landscape for governance presents several challenges. For most crypto users, decentralized governance is akin to backstage theater where the result is only visible once implemented. The reason is that whether or not a proposal passes is not inherently speculative, leading to inefficiencies within the decision-making process. Voter turnout is notoriously low, with the average voter participation rate for the top 100 OP delegates hovering around 33.68%. The disconnect demonstrates either a disengagement or a lack of financial incentives for broader participation. Without Doxa markets, decentralized governance limits discussion to a small group of sophisticated delegates.

Doxa aims to change this by enabling participants to not only predict the results of a proposal but also speculate on the financial outcomes of sub-events, such as whether the proposal will reach three times the quorum by a specific date. Doxa’s goal is to transform decentralized governance from a niche activity understood by few into a more engaging and transparent process for the entire ecosystem.